CREATED: 12:51 AM EDT May 1, 2013
UPDATED: 5:01 PM EDT May 1, 2013
| WNTS (Song) | Dial Idol AVG | VF | IdolAnalytics Not-Safe Probability | VTFG Predictability | Twitter (1M) | FB (1M) | |
| Angie Miller |
49 |
3.492 |
38.44 |
0.301 |
15.97 |
0.13270 |
0.07963 |
| Kree Harrison |
57 |
2.502 |
23.44 |
0.337 |
9.44 |
0.06839 |
0.01308 |
| Candice Glover |
73 |
2.903 |
23.66 |
0.323 |
9.71 |
0.07169 |
0.02696 |
| Amber Holcomb |
41.5 |
3.709 |
15.77 |
0.389 |
7.53 |
0.04483 |
0.00561 |
Names in bold green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Any person not in bold green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Amber and Candice, However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.
Dialidol average is now shows Amber pulling first place for the first time, overtaking Angie, and at this stage of the contest it’s not a good idea to ignore Dialidol. This by itself isn’t enough to say Amber is doing fine. In fact, her other numbers are mediocre. But considering historical factors, Candice is not the most likely to be voted off.
That honor goes to Amber, I’m afraid, and by quite a large margin. This would not be surprising, absent Amber’s performance tonight, since Amber has found herself in the bottom group for the fourth time, Kree for the third time. I don’t feel like the judges gave enough of a full-throated denouncement of Angie and to a lesser extent Kree, but even if they had she appears to have some rabid voters on her side.
Factoring in the margin of error, in fact, the model can’t really decide between Kree and Candice as being in the bottom group.
I pray the most likely, Amber, to get the lowest number of voted off is true. There’s still a good chance Angie will bounce back in the top 3 and eventually win the competition. At this point, it is simply too close to call.
Sorry to do this folks, but as perverse as it might seem, this prediction is not sensitive to week-to-week shocks. As such, it would be safe to say that Amber is gone . However, IdolAnalytics is reporting Candice is not moving on to the top 3.
Note that I haven’t a clue how I would take into account the two weeks’ votes being pooled. These numbers are based purely on tonight; since Candice was the highest probability in both weeks, that’s unambiguous that she would be the most likely.
Two things to ponder.
- Amber was second on Dialidol average last week and this week, and was nonetheless in the bottom 2 last week.
- Angie led
on Dialidol averages until this week, but we know she was in the top 2 and has never landed in the bottom group. Her DialIdol numbers this week is not all good. If Dialidol is very different from previous years, of course, the model may be inaccurate and cost Angie the American Idol crown. However, the model was correct in calling Angie safe last week, so the other factors do matter. Take it for what it’s worth. She should be safe with her Twitter and Facebook followers getting actually voting for Angie.